I want to do a deeper dive on something I did in 240 characters on Twitter last week, which is an analysis of the available categories of Voters for the GOP in 2024 and how they might be brought together into a winning coalition.
MAGA-Nation – This is the group absolutely committed to the return of their Orange God. The election was stolen from him and this in an opportunity to make things right and get revenge on all those who committed the fraud of 2020. We don’t have to wonder what they will do if Trump runs, but what if he doesn’t? Or worse, what if DeSantis beats Trump in the primary? I think that, like Bernie voters in 2016, they would threaten to stay home. Some would, of course, but I think in the end, the vast majority would hold their nose and vote for DeSantis. Reason I think so is that Bernie Voters and Trump Voters see the country in an entirely different way. Bernie voters wanted Bernie over Hillary because they believed that she wouldn’t push their Progressive agenda hard enough. Trump voters see this election as an existential war for the soul and future of the Nation. Those are totally different motivations and I think the fear of what another 4 years of Biden or Harris might do to the country would be enough to sober up even the most hardcore of the Trump dead-enders.
And if they don’t vote for DeSantis, then they are hypocrites, since they spent all of 2016 telling Trump skeptical voters that the 2016 election was a binary choice and that not voting for Trump was the same as voting FOR Hillary.
TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVES – Many TRAD CONS were skeptical of Trump in 2016 and more than a few did not vote for him. They didn’t vote Hillary either, but rather for some other third party or write-in candidate. That said, most wound up appreciating Trump as a President, maybe not for his tweets, but in terms of the way he actually governed, and the way he fought back against the typical biased Media crap that only GOP candidates seem to get. As a result, when 2020 rolled around, most TRAD CONS voted for Trump.
That said, while most TRAD CONS are thankful that Trump came along to show the GOP a new way to fight and win, I don’t think they want Trump to return. I think they are looking for a candidate with just the right amount of Trumpy feistiness but with a better sense of how to drive policy and personnel decisions. DeSantis has those things in spades.
If Trump is the candidate, I think they will hold their nose and pull the lever for him, but I think they would more enthusiastically vote, donate and campaign for DeSantis.
NEVER TRUMP CONSERVATIVES – I’m including in this category folks like Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Jonah Goldberg and John Podhoretz… not the Liz Cheneys, Bill Kristols, Max Boots, and Rick Wilsons… These people have morphed into Democrats and their votes are no longer available to the GOP.
But as for the Bulwark/Dispatch/Sasse/Ryan wing of the GOP and those who follow them, they will not vote for the return of Trump, never… not ever. I think even DeSantis might be too Trumpy for them and I would expect them to vote against him in the Primary, but at the end of the day I do think they will vote for DeSantis in the general election… perhaps reluctantly, but they will do it.
MODERATE BLUE COLLAR DEMOCRATS – these are the hard-working, often unionized guys in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan, many of whom voted for Obama, who decided to give Trump a shot and who then moved back to Biden hoping for a little less chaos and a little more stability. I don’t think they wound up getting either of those things and so I think they are a ripe target for the next GOP candidate. I don’t think they would root for Trump in the primary because they perceive, correctly, that Trump drove the Left so crazy that they punished America in ways that would not have happened under a more traditional GOP President, and I don’t think they are anxious to see the return of things like national lockdowns and vaccine mandates. I do think many of them would vote Trump if he were the candidate, but not all of them would. In the end, a guy like DeSantis could bring a bunch more of them back to the GOP side.
STRAIGHT UP DEMOCRATS – I’m talking about rank-and-file Democrats here… the kind of people who tend to be socially liberal but more fiscally conservative. I’m not talking about the crazy, AOC-style red diaper babies, they are lost and no GOP will ever get those votes. But we are in a unique political moment where I think it might be possible for a GOP Presidential candidate to steal away some voters who have never before considered the GOP.
I don’t think Trump has a prayer with any of these people. They rushed out to vote for Biden desperately wanting to be rid of Orange Man Bad, but I also think that they are tired of all the Biden-related losing. It’s also becoming apparent to me that many of them are angry and frustated by the Left’s obsession with COVID restrictions and things like Critical Race Theory in our schools. California is full of traditional Democrats, mostly women, who are furious at the local CA party’s apparent subjugation by the teachers unions. They want their kids back in school without masks, they don’t want their kids taught that they are defined forever by the color of their skin, and people like Gavin Newsom are working against them. That’s why Gsvin is facing a serious recall effort in two weeks.
If Biden and the Democrats continue to push things like vaccine/mask mandates, and if schools are still being periodically quarantined because of mild or asymptomatic cases, I wouldn’t be surprised if DeSantis was able to pick off a few of these voters based on nothing else but the way he has handled COVID in Florida.
Add up all the results and I think it becomes clear that a guy like Ron DeSantis is the only candidate who can reunite a fractured Republican electorate and take the White House back in 2024.
DESANTIS 2024!